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Friday, October 31, 2008

Trump National Golf Course - Colts Neck Update

I have noticed quite a number of people are visiting my blog looking for information on the Trump National - Colts Neck golf course.  So here is what I am aware my new neighbor is up to.

Work has already begun on the reconfiguration of the golf course itself (lengthening/reconfiguring some holes, moving bunkers, etc.) as well as the planning for the new swimming pool and tennis courts.  (I also understand that some interior improvements are also started, but I do not know what they are as of yet.)

As part of those plans the two ponds were emptied last week which, inadvertently, caused a bit of a problem:  The water from the ponds is also the water source for the sprinkler system in the Clubhouse.  So without the ponds filled, the sprinkler system has no water supply.  If the Clubhouse was empty that would be one thing, but it is not.  So with events planned and water sources needed, tanker trucks filled with water are, as necessary, on site to supply water.  (Such are the logistical problems with being pretty much in the country.)  I am not sure how long this is going to be going on, or what the total logistical situation is, but it is an interesting quandary.

On another front Trump wants to change the name of the road leading into the Club to "Trump Boulevard" from Professional Circle.  While the name sounds good, if you ever saw it, you would know a boulevard it is not.  Apparently the businesses on the road are in favor of it, but some in town have objections like a supposed unwritten rule that streets aren't to be named after living people (though there are streets named after existing businesses, i.e. Slope Brook Farm Road...which isn't even related to the business and was named by other people) and someone didn't like it promoting Mr. Trump.

As for the present name "Professional Circle", I have to wonder if so much interest and concern was put into such a terrible name for our fairly rural town?  Personally, as one living in the area, I think if the present road name had any historical significance, like Hominy Hill Road (which is the back entrance into the development) there might be a legitimate issue.  I live in the Hominy Hill area in between it and Hominy Hill Golf Course (a public course); both named after an old farm. 

However, there is no such history and, just as Hominy Hill Road was named for an existing entity, Trump Boulevard should also be so named.    I am sure more people will eventually be familiar with the name Trump than Hominy Hill so to me it makes sense.  Just my neighborly opinion.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

So You Think Cruise Prices Are High and You Are Holding Off Booking a Seabourn Cruise...Waiting For a Bargain? Check This Out!

I love to find "stuff".  I get in trouble for finding "stuff".  But I will always be on the lookout for some good "stuff".  And here is one bit of "stuff" that you have to see to believe.

I recently purchased a pile of old Seabourn brochures and advertisements.  Included were ads for Asia, the South Pacific (oh, Seabourn please go back there!!) and the Caribbean.  As the Caribbean cruising season is just about upon us, I thought I would share part of a 1995-1996 Caribbean promotional brochure from Seabourn.  (If you click on the images, you will see a full size image in a new window.)

Let's do a bit of comparison:

I.  Holiday Cruise

December 21, 1995 to January 6, 1996 (16 days) - Lowest available price, taking into account an air credit of $350 and $200 for a hotel and transfer credit: $13,410 per person ($838 per day)

December 19, 2008 - January 2, 2009 (14 days) - Lowest available price:  $6,995.00 per person ($499 per day). 

Can you believe it is virtually half the price to cruise on Seabourn today as it was 12 yeas ago...and that doesn't include cost of living adjustments?

II.  Panama Canal Cruise:

November 16, 1995 - November 26, 1995 (10 days) - Lowest available price, taking into account an air credit of $400 and $200 for a hotel and transfer credit: $5,950 per person ($595 per day).

December 5, 2008 - December 19, 2008 (14 days) - Lowest available price:  $4,373.00 per person ($312 per day).

Again, it is virtually half the price to cruise on Seabourn today as it was over a decade ago.

Also, keep in mind that back in 1995 the concept of discounting cruise fares really did not exist.  Goldring Travel discounts literally every cruise we sell...last year, this year and in the future.

I found this, and lots of other information, fascinating.   I will be looking through this treasure trove of material and, from time to time, will share some of it with you.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Troubled Waters on the Luxury Cruise Front...And A Safe Harbor: Seabourn

Over the past days I have seen a number of troubling things happening in the luxury cruise market.  I preface my comments below by stating just because it is "troubling" it doesn't mean it is a disaster.  So please take a breath and then read on....

One of my Seabourn client's wrote two weeks ago, "These markets are taking their toll though. people are scared on the ship and the talk at dinner is often about the "market." Thought we could get away." 

But just yesterday, upon her return, the email was remarkably different:

"We are back from another perfect Seabourn experience. The weather was magnificent, food seemed more delicious than ever and we had a great time. It is the ideal vacation for us. So ideal that I'm sure you know by now, along with [our friends], we have already signed up for the next trip."

With the concept of "Is taking...or even thinking of taking...a luxury cruise at a time like this?" at the fore of most people's minds, the cruise lines are feeling the pinch.  The question becomes, from the guest's perspective, how much trouble are the cruise lines?  That is not, in most cases, an easy question to answer.

Case in point:  Royal Caribbean/Celebrity/Azamara, etc. (albeit not luxury lines).  This week it announced record 3rd quarter earnings, but great concern for the future.  This raised concerns over cash flow. Fortunately, it assured the markets by announcing it has $1.4 Billion dollars in cash and no need for new financing.

But on the luxury front the story, at least for some, MAY be a bit different:

First, Regent pushed off its heavily touted new ship, then it announced the ending of its relationship with the Paul Gauguin and now rumors abound that its $40 million dollar refurbishment of two of its three ships will be cut back (though this has not been confirmed.) and its third ship, Navigator, will be waiting about 2 more years for any upgrades...if at all. While all this may well be prudent business (a good thing), it is evidence that reliance on the perception of their being a high profit/cash flow "gravy train" in luxury cruising may have been a bit too much. 

Then , Crystal announced a very generous reworking of its booking policies so that you cancel within 45 days of departure without incurring penalty.  To me this signaled a concern for getting people to book cruises they were "just not sure about"  and to get them onboard the ships...to, in part, generate onboard revenue.  There is a great truth that once someone books a cruise they become emotionally invested and, therefore, are less likely to cancel it even if times get rough.  It  did not concern me much since it does not seek to keep your cash if you cancel.

Then Silversea came out with drastically discounted cruises...and a 25% travel agent commission on close in sailings.  (I did not previously mention the amount, but it quickly was spread publicly over the internet, so what the heck.)  This is a clear cry for cash.  To me, and honestly to most of my clients I have spoken to about it, it is a Red Flag that Silversea may be in serious trouble.  A cruise line cannot sell a $10,000 cruise at a 40-50% discount (OK, it is really at a 35% discount, since a 10% Early Booking Savings already applied) and then discount it another 25% for the travel agent's (frankly, perverse) commission.  The result, at least for me, has been interesting:  Not a single booking.  Rather, the questions are uniformly, "I am uncomfortable booking with Silversea.  Will my deposit and final payment be protected?  Do I need added insurance...and from whom?  Will my cruise actually take place?" 

Now SeaDream has announced a "Cancel Anytime Within 48 Hours of Departure and Get a 100% Credit" toward a future cruise within 18 months thereafter.  This is, again, very scary...and SeaDream is quite a fine product.  SeaDream had always prided itself on its charter schedule being its base.  But charters are drying up as corporations are not making the same profits and perceptions of such expenditures are presently more negative then positive.  Being a unique product it is not the easiest cruise experience to get people to consider and, honestly, not many travel agents even think about SeaDream as an option.  With its new program, a more aggressive play on the new Crystal approach, SeaDream will keep your cash so that it operates today with a (hopefully) positive cash flow and worry about what cruise you take later.  Clearly this short-term strategy is worrisome.

Seabourn has, at least for now, taken a different approach.  Ala Tiffany's and Louis Vuitton, it is taking the approach of Stability.  It has not changed its deposit policy.  It has not changed its cancellation policy.  It has not offered travel agents any increased (or absurd) commissions.  Has Seabourn reduced some amenities?  Yes, such as the less-and-less popular once a cruise complimentary tours. Seabourn has done, possibly with a bit more aggressiveness, what it has always done when there is a slower selling sailing:  It has offered a better deal...but never "giving away the store".  For example, its $1,000 off on any 2009 Med Sailing is a way to lower its prices for some and to, possibly, attract new business.  (Truth be told, that promotion has caused me more headaches than happiness because the vast majority of my clients already had a better deal since they were on 14 day or longer cruises or on Club Signature Value sailing offering 50% off.) 

Will Seabourn be making better or different deals?  My guess is: Yes, but with a caveat.  When you are not taking drastic actions (because you do not need to:  Stability), you can tailor your promotions to the then existing market (subject to forecasting sailing performance).  So will there be some offers for complimentary upgrades?  Sure.  Will there be added values?  I am confident there will be.  But will it give you a sense of desperation?  I am confident it will not.

Seabourn is mostly concerned with the long term...because it has no short term need for cash.  Yes, it wants full ships and, after being spoiled with, consistently selling out cruises, the concept of empty suites is a bit hard to come to grips with...but a few empty suites does not create a disaster.  Plain and simple:  Seabourn is focused on keeping "luxury" luxury.

When I think of Seabourn I keep thinking of the old commercial, "We Make Money the Old Fashion Way.  We Earn It!" 

How does it make you feel?

Friday, October 24, 2008

Celebrity and Royal Caribbean to End Fuel Supplements

Effective November 10, 2008 Celebrity Cruises and Royal Caribbean Cruise Line will no longer charge fuel supplement for cruises scheduled to depart on or after January 1, 2010.

For 2009 and 2010 cruises booked prior to November 10, 2008 RCCL will determine on a quarterly basis whether fuel supplements will be refunded. Refunds, in the form of an onboard credit, will be provided if the closing price of West Texas Intermediate fuel is $65 or less, at the closing time of the New York Mercantile Exchange, two weeks prior to the beginning of the upcoming calendar quarter. When those conditions are met, an onboard credit will be provided to all guests on sailings that begin during the upcoming calendar quarter.


Put simply, adjustments will be made only four (4) times a year.  That will be done two weeks prior to the beginning of each calendar quarter.  So, for example, if on March 16, 2009 the price of oil is $65 those cruises departing during the period of April -June 2009 would have the fuel supplement refunded by way of an onboard credit.

This is a far less cumbersome formula than that being implemented by Carnival.  I think it may be a balancing between using an understandable method with some of the risk spread versus trying to be as accurate as possible.  I can't say that one is "better" than the other.  What I can say is that I am glad this is happening sooner rather than later.

Some Interesting Options...And The Seabourn Difference

Some of you keep reading about Seabourn, but really don't know what the ships are like.  Let's briefly compare a few ships, so you get the idea of how Seabourn can be so intimate and personalized. 

I have chosen three of the better quality ships, so the comparison is meaningful.
Celebrity Solstice

Regent Seven Seas Voyager

Seabourn Legend


All all three are high quality ships and each provides a quality product. 

The Solstice has far more in the way of facilities, options and unique venues (and I am very much looking forward to my pre-inaugural cruise in an AquaClass spa stateroom next month!).  It also must service over 2,800 guests.  In a way, the fantastic facilities are a substitute for some of the "impossible to provide to everyone" personalized service.  To be sure, there is a WOW factor and a price point for most cabins/suites which is but a fraction of the two others it is compared to. However the top suites do get more personalized service to combine with those facilities and, at times, the prices are not so different from the other two.  But if you shop carefully, good deals abound!

The Voyager has less facilities (and it is about to have some of its more tired ones updated shortly!) and, of course, less guests:  708.  While I have issues with its staff training and inconsistency of service, the theory is that the service is of a higher, more personalized, nature.  Its size and lower passenger count allows for open seat dining and a more "restaurant" vs. "grand ballroom", "club vs. dance hall" feel.  However, due to the number of passengers it is almost impossible to provide proactive service.  If you ask you will probably get what you want - within limits.  But don't expect to get without asking.

The Seabourn Legend (and her two sisters) has the least amount of facilities, with a small (but adequate) spa, fitness center, library, etc.  But with only 208 guests...7% percent of Solstice's and 30% of Voyager's guests...intuitive service and special touches are not only possible, it is a way of life.  The staff quickly learns your name.  They can give you real advice as to wines and menu items.  They can see that you might want a lounge chair "just there" and also bring you refreshments, just in case...and unasked for.  The food is of extraordinary quality and made ala minute rather than staged as hundreds (or thousands) line up at meal times on the other ships.

So as I sit here writing I recall just a few weeks ago I was sitting in the hot tub on the bow of a Seabourn ship with two friends (can you find it in the photo?), sailing out of a small port the other two ships cannot visit (for they are too large), and a bar waiter came up to us and said, "You look like you could use a bottle of champagne and three glasses."  He was right...and we hadn't even thought about that. How did he know that?

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Seabourn Will Cruise Asia Year-Round in 2010!

Seabourn has announced today that the Seabourn Pride will cruise Asia year-round for 2010.  This is great news for all cruisers that are looking for new ports to visit. 

The interesting question is: "Where in Asia?"  While all of the ports have not been determined, Peter Cox (Seabourn's maven on such things) is working as hard as ever to discover ports that have not only the uniqueness desired, but the required infrastructure from docking/tendering facilities to land operations to facilities for those interested in exploring the ports independently.

What I can say is that the Seabourn Pride will operate a number of unique itineraries such as Hong Kong to Tianjin, and Tianjin to Kobe. 

Mr. Cox has described Tianjin is ‘very advanced’ in planning for a cruise terminal, Dalian has having a "magnificent waterfront development plan" and Qingdao, where the Olympic sailing competitions were held, as "a revelation" (though I do remember the tremendous problem with pollution-induced algae just prior to the Olympics).

But do not worry that all the focus will be on China.  Although there is great interest in China, Seabourn is, for example, investigating many other ports such as those in South Korea in addition to those of Busan and Inchon.

For those of you who insisted Seabourn would be getting rid of the triplets as the new ships arrive I am very pleased to be able to say, "Told You So!"  They are not going anywhere...anywhere other than new and unique ports with the same outstanding Seabourn service and food and in the same extraordinarily personalized manner. 

Seabourn will be announcing the remainder of its 2010 itineraries as well as its first quarter 2011 itineraries during the first quarter (or so) of 2009. 

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Regent Seven Seas Voyager - Rhodes Docking Mishap UPDATED

It is reported today that Regent Seven Seas Voyager hit the dock in Rhodes, Greece today.  From the limited information I have, it seems that there is 5 foot (3.5 meter) dent in the hull.  As is standard operating procedure, the ship will not be able to sail until the classification society inspects and approves the ship's sailing or recommends repairs to be made prior to departure. 

The ship apparently hit the dock while coming into port.  The damage was, obviously, minor as the ship was able to depart on time and is continuing its cruise apparently without any changes.