New Regent Seven Seas Ship Delayed Until 2012...At Least.

On Monday, Prestige Cruise Holdings announced its plans for the new Oceania Marina...and some interesting insight into the future for any Regent newbuild(s).

According to Seatrade, PCH has entered into a deal for potentially five (5) ships to be built by Fincantieri...all with the same hull; three for Oceania and two for Regent. While there has been a firm commitment for two Oceania ships, not so for Regent.

Robin Lindsay, Executive Vice President for Vessel Operations characterizes the Regent order as "semi-firm" and is dependent on financing. Lindsay was quotes as saying ‘We hope by the end of the year we will arrange financing to sign a firm contract.’ If that schedule holds, the Regent ship will be delivered in April 2012.

For those of you who also read the Cruise Critic message boards, I "did the math" many months ago and asserted that Regent would not have a new ship until 2012 and the usual suspect(s) flamed me for being so "anti-Regent". Alas, there is a big difference between being realistic and negative. The fact is that it will be AT LEAST FOUR YEARS before Regent will have a new ship...and that is dependent on financing; something that is much harder to obtain these days.

But we need to look further into this information...and into our crystal balls...to try and understand what this means.

The concept is that Oceania and Regent will share the same ships to a great extent. Not only hull forms, but engines, systems, etc. The main difference is that the Regent ships - if built - are in theory going to have 450 or less cabins versus the 629 on the Oceania ones.

But when Frank Del Rio discussed the Oceania Marina on Monday he made the ships sound incredibly similar to the current Regent Seven Seas product: luxury, space, cuisine and options. He told Seatrade the Marina will abandon the English country decor for a more modern "transitional and eclectic" one, have large cabins, marble or granite baths, seven dining venues and an internet connected laptop. (As an aside, my guess as to the last item is that in 4 years this will be an antiquated concept...something I said about the move to put ethernet wiring in new homes back in the '90s.)

One thing I find telling, however, is that PCH is not using pod propulsion. This technology has been shown to be more fuel efficient and provides better maneuverability. The reason given for going with propellers: the technology is not proven. Huh? Pods are being installed on vessel after vessel and even the earlier pods are now being retrofitted so that the former problems are just that. Reality check: Pods are a lot more expensive and omitting them can save significant dollars in construction costs...though increased operating costs will exceed that short term financial "solution"...especially on larger ships.

So with Oceania significantly improving its product to be very similar to what Regent and the luxury lines are offering today - save drinks and gratuities included and, possibly, a higher level of cuisine, are we looking at really nothing more than paying for more real estate on Regent...keeping in mind that Regent will be increasing its passenger counts on the new ships; not reducing them to afford a more personalized level of service.

To be fair, I do not know if the crew counts and design have been worked so that this is adjusted to some extent, but I cannot see how 900 passengers can be treated to the same intimate, luxury experience, as 450 or less can be on, for example, the new Seabourn Odyssey and her two sisters that will be sailing by the time the single new Regent ship MAY be delivered...or the new Silversea ship, etc.

I guess we shall see what the plan is when, in fact, there is a defined plan.

Is Regent Seven Seas Proposed New Ship Dead in the Water?

Today there was an announcement from Regent Seven Seas Cruises about some internal shifting of management, focused on sales and marketing. That is not really news.

However, for some reason I looked at the fine print at the end of the news release. It states, Prestige Cruise Holdings, "the parent corporation of Regent Seven Seas Cruises and Oceania Cruises...is the market leader in the Upper Premium and Luxury segments of the cruise industry with more than 4,450 berths between the Regent Seven Seas and Oceania Cruises brands, a number the company expects will grow to more than 6,700 berths by 2011.

I paused and said, at the 2007 Seatrade Cruise Shipping Conference Frank Del Rio announced Oceania was building two new ships, each being 1,260 passengers and are to be delivered in 2010 and 2011. (Cruise Critic confirmed this announcement: http://www.cruisecritic.com/features/articles.cfm?ID=403 for those doubters out there.) Now, if you do the math: 6,700 berths in 2011 - 4,450 present berths = 2,250 new berths divided by 2 new Oceania ships = 1,150 berths per new ship. The announcement notes "more than 6,700 berths"; not more than 7,800 berths (which would be able to include a new Regent ship)...and there you have it.

Where, oh where, did the proposed new Regent ship go????? You may remember it was only a few days ago Mark Conroy, Regent's President, commented that a new Regent ship may be using an Oceania designed hull. (See my Oceania-fication of Regent post.) Doing the math is pretty easy. Soon, but not yet, a decision will have to be made about which line is going to get that 2011 hull...if it has not already been made...if the option to have it built is even exercised.

UPDATE: I received info directly from Prestige Cruise Holdings a few moments ago and wanted to post this immediately, while waiting for more info (if any). PCH advises that the language I referred to is "boiler plate" (form language) that has been used since the beginning of the year. PCH also advises the Regent ship is not accounted for because no firm order has been placed (same for Oceania's option for a third ship) nor have the number of berths been finalized.

RE-doing the math, it seems like good news, if not great. Oceania is still expanding with two new ships (no giving up a hull to Regent) and there has not been a "no" put on a new Regent ship. I infer that design, timing, demand, finances, etc. are all still being weighed.

I will keep you posted! (And it is great that Prestige Cruise Holdings is reading my blog!).

Seatrade Cruise Shipping Conference

Today I received my quarterly Seatrade Cruise Review and I was pleasantly surprised when the Supplement had a photograph of me on a panel (State of the Superyacht Industry) as the lead in to announcing the 2008 Conference in video and transcript will be available online at http://www.cruiseshipping.net/ later this summer.

When it goes online I will let you know.